SINGAPORE: Marcus Chu, CEO of ERA Singapore, has uncovered a fascinating trend linking the Singapore private housing market with the US presidential elections.
Looking back over the past 20 years, Chu observed a pattern — each time a US presidential election occurs, Singapore’s private property market experiences an uptick in prices and transaction volumes.
The only exception to this trend was in 2012, after President Obama’s re-election.
In an EdgeProp story, Chu said that this anomaly can be attributed to a series of property cooling measures introduced by the Singapore government in 2013. These measures included hikes in additional buyer’s stamp duty (ABSD) and the implementation of the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) framework, which directly impacted market dynamics.
Uncertainty before the US elections
The period leading up to the US elections often brings uncertainty, and in Singapore, this has led to some homebuyers delaying their purchases.
“Homebuyers tend to hold off on making decisions until there is more clarity post-election,” explains Chu.
“With few regulatory changes in Singapore in recent years, global events like US elections have frequently sparked an uptick in market activity once the dust settles.”
A positive shift in market momentum
As we enter the second term of Donald Trump’s presidency, Chu notes that Singapore’s private property market already shows signs of positive momentum.
Since the second quarter of 2024, resale transaction volumes have surged, and new home sales have risen steadily since September.
“There’s a growing sense of optimism in the market,” says Chu. “Economic sentiment is improving, interest rates are expected to be cut further in 2025, and several new projects are set to launch in the final quarter of 2024.
This bodes well for the market as buyer interest is likely to continue gaining momentum.”
Property launches highlight strong demand
Several recent property launches signal the growing confidence in Singapore’s housing market:
8@BT: Launched by Bukit Sembawang Estates on September 21–22, this 158-unit private condominium in Bukit Timah Link saw 83 units (52.5%) sold at an average price of $2,719 per square foot (psf).
Meyer Blue: On October 5, UOL Group and its subsidiary, Singapore Land Group, launched this 226-unit, freehold luxury project on Meyer Road. Over 50% of the units sold within the first few days, with prices averaging $3,260 psf.
Norwood Grand: City Developments Ltd (CDL) launched this 384-unit development on October 20. A remarkable 84% of the units were sold over a single weekend, with prices averaging $2,067 psf.
Chuan Park: The launch by Kingsford Group on November 10 saw a strong performance, with 696 out of 916 units (76%) sold at an average price of $2,579 psf.
With three out of six major residential projects already launched and strong sales recorded, the outlook for the remainder of 2024 remains positive.
Boom year ahead?
Looking ahead, Chu predicts that 2025 could be a “boom year” for property transactions.
“We’re expecting around 10,000 new units to be launched between the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025,” he shares.
“Despite global market uncertainties, Singapore’s employment levels remain robust, and unless there’s a major ‘black swan’ event, we expect the market to stay strong.”
Recent data from Singapore’s Ministry of Manpower underscores the local economy’s resilience.
As of September 2024, the overall unemployment rate dropped to 1.8%, and retrenchments decreased to 2,900 in the third quarter from 3,270 in the second quarter.
Median monthly household income has also risen by 2.8% year-on-year to $10,869 in 2023.
A key pillar of Singapore’s property market is its high homeownership rate, which stood at 89.7% in 2023. Chu explains that homeownership is deeply ingrained in Singaporean culture.
“We are very Asian; we like to own a home,” he remarks. “For many Singaporeans, buying an HDB flat after getting engaged or married is a rite of passage.
The strong support from the government in terms of subsidies and policies has ensured that homeownership remains accessible for most citizens.”
Future of Singapore’s property market
As new projects continue to be rolled out and demand remains steady, Chu remains optimistic about the future of the Singapore property market.
“The homeownership trend continues because HDB flats are well-subsidized and provide a leg up for first-time buyers,” he concludes.
“As long as the fundamentals remain strong, Singapore’s property market will likely continue to thrive.”