Historian predicts PAP will lose more parliamentary seats in coming election

SINGAPORE: Noted historian Michael Barr in an interview published by China News Weekly on Monday (July 31), has predicted that the People’s Action Party (PAP) will likely lose more parliamentary seats in the next general election.

Dr Barr, an Associate Professor teaching International Relations at Adelaide’s Flinders University, is widely considered an authority on Singapore’s political landscape. He has made significant contributions to the academic discourse on Singapore’s politics and history and has published several books on Singapore’s ruling elite.

The China News Weekly article that featured Dr Barr’s views was titled ‘The “July earthquake” in Singapore politics covered the recent scandals that have emerged from within the ruling party, such as the corruption probe involving a Minister and an extramarital affair between an MP and the Speaker of Parliament.

When asked how these scandals might impact local politics, Dr Barr forecasted that there is almost no possibility for the PAP to lose the election, but the party will lose greater seats in Parliament at the next polls.

The opposition currently controls two Group Representation Constituencies (GRC) and one Single Member Constituency (SMC), while the governing PAP holds the remaining 83 out of 93 elected seats.

Dr Barr said that this outcome could end up having mid-term to long-term effects and may ultimately weaken the PAP’s authority.

The historian added that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s delay in handing the baton to his Deputy Prime Minister Lawrence Wong may indicate a lack of confidence in his designated successor.

The ruling party has acknowledged that the recent controversies are a setback but holds up how it responded to the scandals as examples of how Singapore governance works.

In a ministerial statement delivered last week, PM Lee said: “With the investigation into Minister Iswaran and the resignations of the Speaker and an MP, the PAP has taken a hit, but we will show Singaporeans that we will uphold standards and do the right thing, so that trust is maintained, and the Singapore system continues to work well.”

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