HDB resale prices will keep climbing up for 2024, but “modestly”

SINGAPORE: Real estate experts have predicted that Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale prices will continue rising in 2024, albeit on a “modest” scale, driven by various factors that shape the current property market landscape.

Both OrangeTee and Huttons told Singapore Business Review (SBR) that they anticipate a consolidation of resale flat prices within the range of 3% to 5%, while PropNex offered a slightly more optimistic forecast, predicting a growth of 4% to 5%.

The overarching sentiment among industry players is that buyers are becoming increasingly resistant to paying higher prices and cash-over-valuation (COV) for HDB resale flats.

Huttons, a key player in the real estate sector, told SBR that buyers are now more discerning and prefer flats with superior attributes such as an excellent central location, unblocked views, high floors, or unique loft designs.

OrangeTee, highlighting another contributing factor, emphasized that the lower number of Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) flats available in 2024 will likely impact prices.

“As MOP flats decrease, the diminishing stock will provide support to prices in certain locations, preventing a steep price correction,” the real estate consultancy said.

Huttons also pointed out that the reduced number of MOP flats may result in fewer units available for rental, potentially affecting the rental market in tandem with resale prices.

PropertyGuru echoed a similar sentiment, telling SBR that asking prices might remain elevated due to the lower supply of newer HDB resale flats and the scarcity of attractive units in the market. This scarcity, combined with the perceived value of certain features, is expected to contribute to sustained demand, supporting price levels.

In terms of sales volume, both Huttons and PropNex provided comparable forecasts for 2024. Huttons anticipates transactions to fall within 25,000 to 27,000 units, mirroring PropNex’s forecast of 26,000 to 27,000 units. These projections suggest a relatively stable market, with demand persisting despite challenges in the broader housing landscape.

The experts attribute this stability in resale volume to factors such as longer waiting times for Built-to-Order (BTO) sales exercises and fewer Sale of Balance Flats (SBF) exercises.

Huttons suggested to SBR that these factors may lead more buyers to turn to the resale market as a viable alternative. PropNex supported this view, emphasizing that the resale segment continues to cater to the masses, maintaining its appeal among a diverse group of homebuyers.

As the property market navigates through these dynamics, the consensus among experts is that HDB resale prices are poised for a moderate yet steady increase in 2024.

Buyers, armed with a more discerning approach, are likely to shape the market by favoring flats with unique attributes, while the lower supply of MOP flats and a stable resale volume indicate resilience in the face of evolving market conditions.