Industry experts expect HDB resale prices to slow in 2025 due to tight supply

SINGAPORE: HDB resale flat prices in Singapore are projected to grow at a slower rate of 5% to 8% in 2025, down from the 10% increase seen in 2024, according to property consultancy Huttons. The firm attributes this moderation to constrained supply and shifting market conditions.

In its latest market outlook, Huttons estimated that HDB resale transactions for 2025 will range between 26,000 and 28,000 units.

This slight reduction aligns with a continued decline in the number of flats reaching their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP), a prerequisite for entering the resale market.

Adding to the supply challenges, Build-To-Order (BTO) flat launches are expected to drop to 17,290 units in 2025, representing a 12% decrease compared to 2024.

This reduction comes amid policy changes introducing new Standard, Plus, and Prime classifications for BTO flats, creating buyer uncertainty.

“While the Standard and Prime flats are easy to identify, buyers remain unclear on which BTO flats will be classified as Plus,” Huttons noted, suggesting that the ambiguity might drive more buyers towards the resale market, which has fewer restrictions.

Despite the slower price growth, the million-dollar HDB resale market is expected to remain robust. Huttons forecast transactions in this segment to stabilize between 900 and 1,200 units in 2025, signalling sustained interest in high-value flats.

Additionally, the report highlights that potential decreases in interest rates could play a key role in sustaining demand. Lower rates may encourage buyers to take on larger loans, particularly for executive condominiums and higher-value resale flats.

While the market faces headwinds from supply constraints and evolving policies, Huttons indicated it remains cautiously optimistic about continued demand for resale flats, driven by buyers seeking flexibility and fewer restrictions than BTO flats.