India’s strategic ambivalence in Ukraine

By Suresh Menon

Indian Foreign Minister Jayashankar in Europe at the onset of the war made it clear that Indo-Pacific and Trans Atlantic issues are not necessarily analogous. He reminded a questioner that Europe has not shown any interest in challenges taking place in the Indo-Pacific since 2009. He was obviously referring to China’s salami-slicing strategy.

In Asia proper, China is on India’s neck and that of many other countries. The latter needs both Russia and the West. “The US can’t be trusted” is a popular refrain in Asia. Under the circumstances, India’s strategic ambivalence is absolutely the right choice.

Geopolitical shifts demand partners based on leverage. India requires Russian missile defence and military hardware, plus its proven support. The US has pretended to overlook the missile defence deal so far. But an anti-west position will jeopardise that. So India is seen principally agreeing with the West and not giving up on Russia. India can’t afford a China-Russia marriage, even of convenience.

China is also sitting on the fence. A weakened Russia or the US is in her interest.

India knows the war will end at some point, and some ambivalence will be forgotten when its huge market opens up further and the country shops for more hardware.

Interestingly, a Quad online meeting of its leaders amid the Ukraine war kept its agenda strictly to Indo-Pacific security, without sparring over the conflict. China is unlikely to be delighted.

European security has been in shambles since the end of the Cold War. When the Balkans were in flames, she was caught napping.

Germany will now have a sizeable defence budget annually. One hopes Bundestag eagle’s beak will stay meek. Ukraine’s war heralds more tragedies.

The Nato’s unilateral expansion eastwards, treating a major global power as if she is a mirage, has led to this brutal war. Add to that the post-Soviet era politics played by the West to marginalise Russia.

An act of war, as Russian President Putin has put it, has ensued swiftly with Western financial sanctions. Ejecting Russia out of the SWIFT payment system has alarming ramifications for future conflicts and global financial architecture.

Moscow can retaliate with more firepower and nuclear sabre-rattling in the coming days.  Surge in oil prices is a pointer to supply disruptions and Russia’s capacity to feed Europe. Saudis have not agreed to open up their taps.

As India put it rightly, negotiating table is the only option once the rhetoric over principles fades. Russia is no Iraq, and the US knows it very well.

Being a toady of Nato alias the US or a culturally closer hegemony was the only option Ukraine had since her inception to a ‘free’ country status. This is the new normal for all independent nations.

US President Biden has categorically dismissed US boots on the ground. Putin may test US resolve by threatening a Nato member if the unprecedented financial sanctions bite.

The bottom line as far as India is concerned, war or peace, you are on your own in this world of strategic geopolitical hypocrisy.

The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of The Independent Singapore