To deal with the coronavirus, nations have followed various strategies. The West has primarily followed the vaccine-powered living with the virus approach, which is essentially based on the belief that the virus is here to stay, and its complete elimination is not possible, at least in near future, therefore nations must continue with their functioning adapting to this new normal.
China is having a difficult time accepting this fact and is adhering to a more aggressive approach with the “zero Covid” policy, which involves complete control and maximum suppression for the elimination of the virus by using aggressive public health measures, such as contact-tracing, social isolation, mass testing, and lockdowns.
In China, under this policy, cities are directed to impose stringent lockdowns and follow strict measures of social isolation even if only a small number of cases are reported. The objective of the strategy is to ensure there are no new infections and the virus is eliminated so that the nation can resume its usual social and economic affairs.
With an increasing number of cases in Shanghai, the 26 million residents had to adhere to the strictest of actions. To eliminate the virus, draconian measures were getting implemented such as separating families after testing positive and placing people in isolation. These measures are creating emotional turmoil among the general public as post-separation, the essential medical treatments are not prompt due to administrative flaws, thus extending the period of separation. There are also reports of incidents where individuals who tested negative were taken to quarantine facilities and were forced to give access to their residence to disinfect the premises.
People are expressing resentment towards the heavy-handedness of the government. Videos are circulating on social media platforms of the public pleading for help, for reasons such as lack of food, delay in treatment, infants getting separated from their parents, and more. However, the authorities in China have denied all allegations and have reiterated that the policy is essential for saving lives.
Initially, China was seen as the country handling the virus comparatively successfully. However, recently Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu of World Health Organization (WHO) highlighted that with the virus evolving, evolving measures implemented are important as well. With new coronavirus variants becoming more transmissible, complete elimination is impossible and hence the zero Covid policy falls short to achieve its goal, as was seen in recent outbreaks of Delta and Omicron variants in different cities of China.
With a sharp economic recovery after the first wave in 2020, the Chinese economy is once again experiencing the adverse impacts of Covid-19 due to the stringent mitigation approach followed by the authorities. China’s export growth declined to its lowest since June 2020 in April and the imports were also stagnant for the month mainly due to a muted domestic demand. The decline in growth across sectors is primarily due to the shutdown of factories in various cities under lockdown as part of the zero Covid policy. Multinational companies are also reporting reduced business confidence in China due to the strict lockdowns which are causing global supply chain disruptions.
Initially, under the zero Covid policy, the domestic Chinese economy flourished as China was able to control the virus with measures that involved isolating itself completely from the rest of the world and becoming self-reliant. Not having a perforated boundary helped the administration control the spread of the virus into the country. However, with recent domestic outbreaks, the government continues with a zero Covid policy thus imposing lockdowns and halting manufacturing and production in the country. Clubbed with stringent restrictions on imports, exports, and the movement of people in and out of the country, the Chinese economy is taking a hit for the sake of public health.
The major blow that the global economy faced is the disruption of the global supply chains due to the slowing down of the Chinese economy, especially the manufacturing sector, triggered by its stringent Covid-19 policies. Chief economist of the Fitch Ratings, Brain Coulton, acknowledges the fact that the zero Covid policy had disrupted the global economy; he also sees that these disruptions will not be a very serious obstacle to global growth. Multinational organisations and businesses are also facing operating problems which they have very strongly expressed in recent months. Chinese economic experts, however, continue to argue that the zero Covid policy was the only suitable strategy to deal with the outbreak and keep the economy stable and believe that the Chinese economy will continue to contribute to global economic growth.
After successfully continuing the zero Covid streak for two years, China could not keep up when the Omicron variant hit its shores, causing more than 8,000 deaths. The unvaccinated elderly residents were among the most vulnerable to this highly transmissible variant. Most of the residents are hesitant to get vaccinated due to the common perception that the risks from the vaccines outweigh the risk of catching Covid-19. The zero Covid policy has now become a victim of its success. As important as public health, for China its politics is also significantly important, and at times, it becomes imperative for them to prove their decisions to be right as opposed to that of the West.
In the initial years of the pandemic, the Chinese model was hailed to be the ideal as the least number of deaths were recorded in comparison to the rest of the world. Therefore, changing track now could indicate that the model was a failure in the long run thus affecting Xi Jinping’s legacy adversely. However, continuing with the zero Covid policy will cost China, both economically and socially. To escape from this dilemma, China can take examples from their Asian counterparts, such as Singapore where following the science, they have managed to successfully open up their country, by aggressively vaccinating its population. This becomes the most evident solution for China to follow to make its zero Covid policy successful, while also safeguarding XI Jinping’s legacy and saving China as a whole.
The article has been authored by Ananya Raj Kakoti, a field campaign associate, Indian-Political Action Committee (I-PAC) and scholar. Gunwant Singh, scholar, international relations, Jawaharlal Nehru University.
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