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Bonsai Nation: Will Singapore matter when China becomes No. 1?

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By Bob Tan

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“Singapore is a bonsai in China’s image – a miniature doppleganger similar in all respects save size.” –China is to be studied, not feared 1 (July 17 2010)

There are few uplifting conclusions to draw upon when one is compared to a bonsai.

A senior Chinese leader once used the word to describe Singapore and its dismissive connotation did not escape a Singaporean businessman in attendance. Despite hosting myriad waves of Chinese immigration and a track record of bankrolling Chinese revolution and war efforts against foreign aggression, Singapore in the eyes of the Chinese leadership today is at best miniaturized model with some genetic similarities.

What can a compact and dense city state 42km across about 4,000 kilometres away offer to a continental nation with more than 200 times the people? So, what’s in favour and what’s not for Singapore if China surpasses the US to take No.1 spot in Asia2, the world’s most populous and fastest developing continent? Anyone who’s played the board game Risk will recall fondly the bonus army advantage gained if Asia was under one’s control….But I digress.

Will securing top spot in Asia become a prelude its drive for the No. 1 spot in the world? This will make them the first non-Western power to do so in two hundred years. From revolution to the capitalist road, the No. 2 is now breathing down No.1‘s neck. That is significant. Who trains for silver placing?

Here are three arguments for and against Singapore’s cause. What’s on the table is by no means exhaustive.

AGAINST #1 Just another brick in the wall: China’s outward interests are extensive today

With BRICS they have in some ways started to chip away at American economic hegemony, providing further ballast in restoring a multipolar world. Bilateral agreements for instance to bypass the USD in favour of direct exchange are hallmark of a seachange from a defensive posture with the yuan.

That said, China’s hard power posturing over territorial disputes in both the South and East China Sea across 2012 and 2013 should at least ring some alarm bells. The media trumpeting of the combat-readiness preps for their new aircraft carrier and stealth fighter in the same period also further suggest a sea-change from the sepia-toned memories of 韬光养晦 (tao guang tang hui), a strategy of misdirection.

Of course if we look further back, China has suffered a history of strategic encirclement since the 19th century starting with the Opium War. What sort of behaviour can one expect from a de-contained power?

Singapore’s China and US hedge against the bigger picture

FPDA has been in effect since 1971. Singapore’s naval facilities have serviced American fleets since the days my dad played in a band at a bar named Melbourne where marines and MPs regularly clashed in the 70s. Singapore’s foreign policy approach today looks a hedge between the US and China3. Can it afford to piss off either, or for either to get pissed off with each other for that matter? Further, the Singapore gateway of 1990s yore sitting at Asia’s southern continental tip is just one cog in its complex foreign policy orientation.

In response to Obama’s (now weakening?) Asian pivot, China has set up its own network of friendlies across the continents to extend influence and protect shipping lanes. Its interests in Africa have been questioned despite its proclaimed non-interventionist independent foreign policy of peace  ‘see where America builds drones, China builds roads’. Beyond that, there is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, the String of Pearls and its Latin-America pivot right smack in the American backyard.

AGAINST #2 It’s not like they’ve always listened… What happens when Singaporeans the Chinese listen to retire or pass on?

Once, a suggestion was made to a Chinese leader to make English first language to better adapt to the global marketplace. The response was unsurprisingly no. There was no way a leadership with the mindset of a long-continuing civilization and bounded by 4000 years of script would accede to that. It turns out mastering English with millennia of script guiding though continues to be something the Chinese have yet to master.

While former PM Lee Kuan Yew4,5,6,  diplomat Tommy Koh and historian Wang Gungwu (technically Malayan-born but currently Singapore-based) remain voices that resonate with the Chinese, what happens when they are no longer around? A recent mainstream state media news article laments this possibility7.

Also foreshadowing this was an incident in 2005 when Straits Times correspondent Ching Cheong was arrested and accused of espionage in China. It took herculean Singaporean efforts a long time to get him back8.

AGAINST #3 People-to-people relations on the decline captured in online public opinion

In a city-state oft-described to thrive culturally looking East yet with an eye looking West strategically, this intricate leverage may be unhinging as xenophobic, anti-Chinese vitriol online permeate Singapore’s political blogosphere further channeled through social media, web forums and web 2.0-based communities. This trend prompted nationwide attention when Singapore’s Prime Minister devoted a sixth of his sixty-minute long 2012 National Day rally to nip the emergence of a divisive, politicking fault-line (this term was covered widely all over mainstream state media and online public discourse, with acknowledgement and action by ruling party members of parliament).

The digital revolution has provided a space for generating public opinion online and this has been redefining the contours, peripheries and centre of gravity of public discourse in a country whose citizens are often associated as operating within self-regulating out-of-boundary markers.

Incidents from Sun Xu9 to Ma Chi10, the curry incident11, the first strike in 25 years (see Figure 1 below for a study of its impact)12, to clashes over public transport etiquette have instigated many a social media frenzy. Many have leveraged the power of web 2.0 and social networking services to organise and amplify their displeasure across time and space.

Figure 1 - Singapore’s historical strike data. Singapore’s historical strike data from 1946 to 2009. In this chart, man-days lost refer to the total number of working days lost annually due to industrial action. It is calculated by multiplying the duration of industrial actions (in days) with the number of workers that were affected. Source – Ministry of Manpower, Singapore
Figure 1 – Singapore’s historical strike data. Singapore’s historical strike data from 1946 to 2009. In this chart, man-days lost refer to the total number of working days lost annually due to industrial action. It is calculated by multiplying the duration of industrial actions (in days) with the number of workers that were affected. Source – Ministry of Manpower, Singapore

Singapore pushing the envelope of urban density has had its impact on the latest floodgate of Chinese immigration, the first in 60 years.

This latest wave augments the fifth largest overseas Chinese community in the world. Those who identify themselves as Singaporean Chinese can be generations apart from their ancestral homes in China. Preferring the identifier of Huaren as opposed to Huaqiao and Huayi, this glimpse of self concept is an indicative signifier implying distinction, from the Chinese mainland.  1 million mainland Huaqiao and Huayi Chinese nationals are recent additions (since immigration laws were relaxed in 1989) and they currently share this space with the existing 2.8 million Singaporean Chinese Huaren citizens. 500,000 Peranakans or Straits Chinese make up the earliest arrivals of this diasporic landscape. Who knows how many of these myriad Chinese subgroups in Singapore (a long-time receiving location for Chinese emigration) also subscribe to the China Dream? Further, the Chinese narrative may not resonate at all with Singapore’s non-Chinese population.

If Singapore’s population target of 6.9 million is to be achieved within a generation the ratio of 1 foreigner out of 3 singapore citizens becomes 1 out of 2.  The white paper was not well received.  It prompted a first – mass demonstrations organized through social networking services and attended by the thousands. Such publicly confrontational acts have been unheard of in decades.

AFFIRMATIVE #1 Long running host country to Chinese immigration and exchange

Singapore is the only place outside greater China with a Chinese-majority population. In 1840, the Chinese in Singapore made up 31% of the 10,000 strong island population. 150 years later in 1990, it was 75% of 3 million. This is a percentage it maintains to this day. That should, by right, naturally make it a great place for the Chinese to do business, work, study, or live.

It maintains top ranking as source of remittance to China.  The latest wave of Chinese immigration into the China, the first is sixty years continues a tradition that has gone on record for at least two hundred years.

Singapore trains China’s mayors. High-level exchanges are frequent and narratives about Singaporeans who mattered to China are plenty13.

1. Sun Yat-Sen’s base of operations during the remains well-maintained today, a visual marker that ensures the story of Singapore’s role in the Chinese revolution remains clear.

2. Singapore is a recent recipient of panda diplomacy, that usually comes with more perks than meets the eye.

3. Confucius Institutes: However, Singapore is just a node in this global network. Also, see Conficius Institutes look beyond language. The report notes the number of Institutes and classrooms globally have risen to more than 1,000 over the past nine years.

AFFIRMATIVE #2 Money talks

Economic cooperation is robust and Singapore’s been there from the start. It was given entry into China’s markets before official ties in 1990. Trade between the two has since edged toward S$100 billion in 2010. In that year, China was the second-largest source of tourist arrivals and Singapore’s biggest investment destination. Singaporeans have been actively taking steps to establish themselves in China, imprinting a Singaporean flavour and presence into the Chinese landscape. There were more than 18,000 Singapore projects in China amounting to US$47 billion. Singapore-style condos and food courts dot the Chinese urban sprawl. If Chinese projections are correct, its middle class could one day number up to 700 million. With the amount of building and development yet to be done what we have is a huge market a size the world has never seen, for Singapore entrepreneurs to tap in to. China is Singapore’s third largest trading partner after Malaysia and the EU (See Figure 2).


 

AFFIRMATIVE #3 Lessons from a one-party state retaining legitimacy while regulating online public opinion

Lessons on the digital revolution: China’s number of internet users stood at 591 million halfway through 2013. For a country often taunted as monolithic and homogenous, that number was a milestone. A little less than a decade ago in 2005, the number was 111 million. Relative to its population however, China’s attempts to bridge the digital divide continues to need work.

According to a study published in the Washington Post that looked at internet penetration rates from 2002 to 2012,  the US grew from 50 to 81%. China was in a wholly different league. It started at 5% and grew to 42% in the same period. In 2012, Singapore’s internet connectivity was reported to be at about 99%.  Despite the democratising potential of the medium, China took its chance. They saw that Singapore, a familiar country with somewhat similar characteristics had fine tuned the floodgates of the internet, gave some room for alternative voices to emerge online, while maintaining one-party political legitimacy.

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To conclude, these arguments for and against are just the tip of the iceberg. Comments and thoughts to widen the discourse are most appreciated.

Footnotes:
1Source – ‘China is to be studied, not feared’ published in the Straits Times July 17, 2010. An Insight interview by Rachel Chang with then foreign minister George Yeo
2Singapore’s first prime minister is in little doubt the Chinese leadership feel compelled to compete for the No. 1 spot in Asia. From the book Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World published by Belfer Center Studies in International Security, 2013
3Edward Lee (August 29, 2013) US versus China: Which matters more to Asia and Singapore? Singapore: Straits Times.
4See  Lee Kuan Yew presented with a Business China Lifetime Achievement Award in celebration of his upcoming 90th birthday on September 16 @ http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/lee-kuan-yew-receives/803440.html Also in a Global Times piece in 2009, Lee was named as one of sixty foreigners who helped shaped 60 years of the People’s Republic.
5See Vogel, E. (2011) Deng Xiaoping and the Transformation of China. Cambridge: Bellknap Press
6See Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World published by Belfer Center Studies in International Security, 2013
7John Wong (September 18, 2013) Leader who struck a chord with China. Singapore: Straits Times.
8Ching Cheong (2013) ‘My 1,000 days Ordeal’ A Patriot’s Torture, Singapore: Straits Times Press
9For more on Sun Xu who referred to Singapore as a place where there were more dogs than humans on his microblog, go to http://news.insing.com/tabloid/prc-students-planning-protest-for-sun-xu/id-d9333f00
10View video of the Ma Chi crash here http://sg.news.yahoo.com/ferrari-driver-was-travelling-at-178km-h–coroner.html
11This was reported as ‘Singapore’s ‘anti-Chinese curry war’ in the Telegraph on August 16, 2011 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/singapore/8704107/Singapores-anti-Chinese-curry-war.html This article had more than 5,000 Facebook likes and 190 retweets.
12See The Strike that rattled Singapore: a WSJ investigation‘What happened over two days in late November 2012 rattled the foundations of Singapore’s economic success – its business-friendly governance and industrial harmony – and prompted a robust response from the government http://blogs.wsj.com/searealtime/2013/08/26/the-strike-that-rattled-singapore-a-wsj-investigation/
13See Andrea Ong (July 3, 2013) on Lee Khoon Choy’s book Golden Dragon and Purple Phoenix. The former diplomat made an important remark – that ‘Books on overseas Chinese tend to focus on the Chinese schools and associations the immigrants form rather than the deeper blood ties that have evolved’ Singapore, featured in about 10% of the 584-page tome. http://www.straitstimes.com/breaking-news/singapore/story/ex-mp-and-diplomat-launches-book-multi-ethnic-chinese-descendants-sea-

The case for selling US Treasuries

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By Charles Tan

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Last week’s anti-climactic resolution to the US government shutdown and debt ceiling impasse brought to mind a witty quote from one Winston Churchill, “you can always count on the Americans to do the right thing – after they’ve tried everything else.”
However, let’s be clear about one thing: nothing has actually been solved.  All that US policymakers have managed to achieve after their weeks of squabbling is simply an agreement to kick the can a little further down the road, and to postpone the day of reckoning.  In roughly three months’ time, we can expect to be treated to a replay of the tragic comedy that is American politics.  All over again.
WHY DOES THIS KEEP HAPPENING?
Well, it depends on who you ask.  Democrats would blame the Republicans for not increasing the debt ceiling more, Republicans would blame the Democrats for spending too much, but in my opinion, both parties are barking up the wrong tree.  Just raising the debt ceiling every time it is breached, as the Democrats want, is like popping a painkiller to relieve a headache caused by a brain tumour – a temporary stopgap which addresses the symptoms but not the root issue.  On the other hand, it is difficult to solve the problem by simply spending less (mainly because of the magnitude of the deficit), but this is especially so when accompanied by the generous tax cuts which are a common feature of Republican fiscal policy.
The reason the US keeps having to raise its debt ceiling is that, despite all their talk, neither party is actually serious about balancing the books and actually paying down debt.  The point that got lost in the political circus of the last two weeks was that the US doesn’t actually have to default once it reaches its debt ceiling.  It just has to live within its means – like all of us do – but such change is hard, and painful, and no self-serving, democratically elected politician would choose to go down that path if he didn’t have to.
MY UNCLE SAM, THE CREDIT JUNKIE
In short, austerity is anathema, and this is because the US is hooked on credit.  A balanced budget would mean withdrawing net public expenditure equivalent to c4% of GDP, the effects of which, when compounded by the multiplier effect, and set against a projected growth rate of just c2.5% this year, would almost certainly bring about an economic recession.  President Obama does not want that on his head.
Furthermore, piling on debt is actually a logical response to current market conditions, from a US policymaker’s point of view.  This is because the interest the US Treasury has to pay its bondholders is so ludicrously low.  The analogy that many people use with regard to the debt ceiling is that of the US reaching the limit on its credit card: most of us can identify with that example and therefore nod in agreement to suggestions that the government should stop spending so much money and pay off its debt.  The key difference, however, is that the US government doesn’t pay 24% p.a. interest on its outstanding balance – the blended average is c1.5% p.a. – and if you could get money that cheaply, you probably wouldn’t be in much of a hurry to pay down your debts either.
FEEDING THE ADDICTION
The fault lies with us, really, because it is we who indirectly finance the US deficit year after year, enabling Uncle Sam to shovel yet more debt down his throat despite being aware of his ‘addiction’.  Foreign governments and investors like us own about a third of the outstanding US debt, and this figure is set to keep increasing because the two largest creditors – US pension funds (36%) and the Federal Reserve (11%) – are structural sellers of Treasuries going forward.  Since 2010, Social Security has been paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxes, and the Federal Reserve has indicated an end to quantitative easing by mid-2014.
By continuing to build our holdings of Treasuries despite their paltry rates of interest and accumulating US dollars despite their steadily falling value over time, we are effectively subsidising the US government’s operations (and all its follies) – from an unsustainable system of welfare and benefits, to unnecessary farm subsidies, to a controversial military/espionage programme.  In the process, we are also helping to prop up unprofitable zombie companies that should be put out of their misery and re-inflate a housing bubble with cheap fixed rate mortgages and the return of subprime lending.  This raises objections on so many grounds that I cannot even begin to list them here.
BUY REAL ASSETS, AVOID I.O.Us
The US enjoys its privileged fiscal position for a number of reasons, chief among which are: a) its status as the world’s de facto reserve currency, b) its vibrant, innovative and world-leading economy, and c) the implicit assumption that creditors will always be paid back on time, and in full.  The first two points are unlikely to change in our lifetimes: the euro (and the eurozone) is flawed by construction, while the renminbi is decades away from achieving full capital convertibility, and despite its flaws, the US remains a great country with immense productive potential, a strong culture of capitalism and a relatively open immigration system (all of which breed competition and creativity).  The third point, however, can no longer be taken for granted.
America’s politics is dysfunctional and the fiscal policies, as they stand, are unsustainable.  Therefore, I am inclined to agree with Chinese credit rating agency, Dagong, that the US should indeed be downgraded and deserves no more than an ‘A-‘ rating.  The current political set up means that no matter which party wins the election, creditors to the US lose, because the government is not expected to run a budget surplus anytime in the next 25 years, which is as far out as the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office forecasts go (refer to http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cbo-issues-fresh-long-term-debt-warning-2013-09-17).  In such a scenario, I would prefer that, insofar as we cannot escape investing in the world’s largest economy, our national wealth and reserves be held in real assets such as land, property, infrastructure, or even the equity of selected companies, rather than US Treasuries, which are nothing more than glorified I.O.Us that offer no protection against inflation or currency devaluation.
To our credit, Singapore’s holdings of US Treasuries have fallen rapidly this year, from $109.5bn in February to $81.5bn in July, but in my view, further reductions can be made, and everyone (including China and Japan) should follow suit.  The higher interest rates that result from a bond sell-off will have a purgative effect: forcing the US government to be more prudent with spending, creating a renewed efficiency drive across both the public and private sectors, and taking the froth out of the asset bubbles.  A recession may soon follow, under these circumstances, but the alternative – to have interest rates remain as low as they are – simply sets us up for the next great financial crisis, which is a far less attractive proposition, in my opinion.  Uncle Sam has a dangerous addiction, and we need to stage an intervention before he takes the whole family down with him.

Learning with the International Primary Curriculum

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By Anne Keeling, Media Relations, International Primary Curriculum
In our challenging global, interdependent world, it is so important for children to receive a good education. Getting a primary curriculum right is more difficult today than it’s ever been because it has to meet so many crucial goals.
Winstedt School
Of all these goals, the most essential ones are:

  • Rigorous learning: ensuring a blend of knowledge, skills and understanding across a broad range of subjects.
  • High levels of children’s engagement: so that children enjoy their learning and stick to it.
  • International, global and intercultural awareness: many opportunities open to our current generation of children will be in countries and cultures different from the one in which they are growing up in. So many problems, both global and local will be solved through cooperation.
  • The development of personal dispositions: qualities such as adaptability, morality, respect, resilience, enquiry, cooperation, communication and thoughtfulness, which will help them on their journey through life.
  • Supporting teachers and schools: Providing teachers and schools with everything they might need to make the curriculum work to its very best for every single child.

 
A curriculum that thoroughly meets each of these priority areas is not easy to pull off. However feedback from schools around the world including St Joseph’s Institution International Elementary School and The Winstedt School in Singapore, and over 80 schools throughout South East Asia suggests that one curriculum – the International Primary Curriculum (IPC) is well on the way. So much so that the IPC is one of the most successful primary curriculums in the world today.
 
The IPC was introduced in 2000 after several years in development and combined the expertise of many skilled curriculum writers, school leaders and teachers from all over the world. It remains in development today to ensure a current and highly relevant curriculum that continues to evolve. No one can properly predict the nature of work that will be available for today’s primary age children by the time they are adults. Many of the jobs they will have simply don’t yet exist, especially in the fields of ICT, technology and science. So the principle of the IPC is to focus on personal, academic and international learning that will prepare children, wherever they may live, for the world of tomorrow.
 
So how does the IPC achieve the essential goals for a successful curriculum today?
 
Learning with the IPC – Engaging Children
Winstedt School 2We all know that children learn best when they want to learn. That’s why the IPC has over 80 different thematic units of learning. They are all child-friendly, modern-day topics appealing to all ages of primary children; themes such as I’m Alive, Inventions and Machines, and Global Swapshop.  Teachers use the theme to excite and engage children. This enables young children to remain motivated through the learning of science, geography, history, music, art and so on. It also allows them to make purposeful links throughout their learning and to see how their subject learning is related to the world they live in.
 
Within each theme, the IPC suggests many ideas for collaborative learning, for active learning, for learning outside the classroom, for role play, and for children learning from each other.
 
The IPC’s engaging approach also encourages parental involvement. Children, inspired by their learning, talk freely to family members about what they’ve done at school and often choose to continue their learning at home. Parental involvement is also promoted through extended learning ideas and end of unit Exit Point events that frequently involve parents, offering them the chance to see and participate in some of the learning that has been going on.
 
Learning with the IPC – Rigorous Learning
Winstedt School 3Each IPC unit incorporates many subjects including science, history, geography, ICT, art and PE and provides many opportunities to incorporate language arts and mathematics. Each subject has a number of learning tasks to help teachers to help their children meet a range of learning goals set out in the curriculum. These learning goals are deliberately explicit; designed to make sure that teachers distinguish clearly between children’s learning of knowledge, skills and understanding.
 
Take, for example, the IPC Chocolate unit. In history, children explore the discovery of chocolate, the period it was discovered, the motivation for discovery and the changing attitude to chocolate through the ages. In geography they look at the countries that grow cacao and how particular localities have been affected by its production and by slash and burn. They look at the links between countries that grow cacao and countries that produce chocolate. In art children look at how chocolate is sold and how packaging is designed. In science, children look at the energy values in foodstuff and explore the effects of heating and cooling, and so on; six weeks of learning in all subjects, all connected to the theme of Chocolate.  This not helps children to see a purpose for their learning but helps them to make links in their learning which, as the latest research into the brain tells us, helps improve learning.
 
Learning with the IPC – Intercultural Awareness
So many of our problems, the world over, at local and global level are caused by different groups not knowing or respecting each other. That is why the IPC places such priority on the teaching of international mindedness; to help children develop a greater appreciation for others. To achieve this, each IPC unit has embedded within it, learning-focused activities that help young children to start developing a global awareness and gain an increasing sense of other people. Every IPC unit creates opportunities to look at learning of the theme through a local perspective, a national perspective and an international perspective.
 
With many schools in 85 countries learning with the IPC, opportunities abound for children to share their local experiences related to an IPC unit with children in dramatically different environments.
 
Learning with the IPC – Developing Personal Dispositions
Winstedt School 4The personal dispositions we form as individuals are established over time with constant use and that’s how the IPC views children’s learning of personal skills. The opportunities to experience and practise very specific personal dispositions are built into the learning tasks within each thematic unit. For example, in the IPC Water unit, a group of children have to make a water turbine. They start by creating if from cardboard and, through their own research and development – along with gentle guidance from the teacher – work out how to improve their design. Not only are they learning about the power of water, but at the same time these children are developing the skills of cooperation, enquiry, communication and adaptability.
 
Supporting Teachers and Schools
Each IPC unit has a very structured yet flexible teaching framework providing teachers with a series of learning tasks. These are designed to help teachers achieve the learning goals through creative, meaningful and memorable learning activities that appeal to all learning styles and are relevant for all children of all abilities. However, the learning tasks are purely a guide and provide plenty of scope for creative teaching, personalisation to the class and locality, and development on the theme as well as linking with other schools learning with the IPC. With IPC member schools in over 80 countries as diverse as Swaziland, Qatar, Japan, Russia, UK and Singapore, this sharing of learning opportunities ensures that no school, however remote, feels isolated.
 
The IPC in Malaysia
So what do schools in Singapore think of the IPC?  “There is real depth to the IPC,” says Principal of Elementary at St Joseph’s Institution International Elementary School, Louise Grant. “It takes us through a learning process that immediately engages children and helps them to see a purpose to what they’re learning.”  And Jennifer Chadam, Head of Communications and Development at The Winstedt School says: “I am amazed at the learning that takes place each week and what a strong educational foundation the IPC builds for children.”
The International Primary Curriculum is part of Fieldwork Education which, since 1984, has been helping schools around the world to develop children’s learning. Because of the growth of the curriculum in schools throughout South East Asia, Fieldwork Education has now opened an office in Kuala Lumpur to support all new and established IPC member schools. For more information about the IPC visit www.greatlearning.com/ipc

Raymond Lim and the Internet

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By Zach Isaiah Chia

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What former Minister Raymond Lim said at his book launch last Friday deserves unemotional scrutiny. As the Internet opens a new world of  uninhibited expression, it is important for Singaporeans to have the “courage  to stand up to those who would tear society asunder”, he said. It was more important to “speak up and stand up for what you believe in”. He said it was “worrying that people who support the government [are pilloried and flamed]”.
It is important to understand why Singapore has come to this point of  political abuse. It is only natural that when a society is bottled up for so long and when the lid is finally lifted, the citizenry will give their two cents work on everything and every person. This is the price the government is paying.
The pendulum has swung the other way for sure. This correspondent asked Lim if this was just the teething phase of a forced opening up that was happening in Singapore. He responded that “social sorting” on the Internet was prevalent and people would drift to sites that vocalised their views.
But is the Internet a purveyor of extreme views?
It generally becomes extreme when the public does not have an opportunity to express their views freely. The Internet is not a democracy. It gives the illusion of one because everyone has a voice. Actually, a hierarchy of voices exists and some voices are more influential than others.
A significant number of these influential bloggers are very rational in their discourse, even if their criticisms are cutting. Then there are public personalities such as Tommy Koh and Ngiam Tong Dow who are  viewed with equal measure of respect on both sides of the divide. They are viewed as independent intellectuals.
But the problem is that the government views nearly every one who has opposing thoughts with suspicion. What is their agenda? That is a question that is still asked in the corridors of power.
The climate of trust and openness needs to be built. It is only when such openness is nurtured, that a more balanced discourse will take place, views better covered and the vitriolic minority will be relegated to the sidelines.
Lim was arguing for calibration and he is right to want that.. But for the National Discussion to self-calibrate, even flourish, in the online world the government must come to the conclusion that the Internet is not going to go away. Ways have to be found to accommodate and embrace the thoughtful voices, even if they are not pro-government. Once that happens, the so-called extremism in the Internet will be pushed to the fringes.

New NSP boss: Now for the real work

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By Mary Lee
The National Solidarity Party (NSP) yesterday returned Jeanette Chong-Aruldoss unopposed to the position of secretary-general, which was vacated when Hazel Poa stepped down for health reasons. Now that this “little formality” has been sorted out, she said, “NSP can get on with issues that affect Singaporeans and continue our outreach efforts to stay close to the ground”.
jeanettechong
Chong-Aruldoss said NSP “hopes to inspire more good people to volunteer with us”. “There are many issues to look at and Singapore is dynamic. Things are always changing and NSP has to stay on top of things.”
Apart from working the grassroots by providing monthly free legal clinics, NSP has been speaking out on the foreign worker issue in Singapore. In a statement last month, it said: “(We welcome) the Ministry of Manpower’s announcement on 23 September 2013 on the new Fair Consideration Framework (FCF) which requires employers to consider Singaporeans fairly before hiring Employment Pass (EP) holders. For some time, opposition parties and concerned citizens have urged the Government to review its policies relating to the employment of non-Singaporeans.
“In our 2011 General Elections Manifesto, we had specifically called on the Government to grant priority to Singaporeans in employment. We are glad that the Government has heeded the call to level the playing field between Singaporeans and foreigners for job opportunities and has moved to improve employment opportunities for Singaporeans.”
But there is still work to be done in this area, according to the NSP: “Coming into force in August 2014, the FCF will only apply to the hiring of EP holders.  The Ministry has justified this by saying that levies and dependency ratio ceilings will spur firms to search for suitable Singaporeans before applying for an S-pass or Work Permit (WP).
“The employer who hires a Singaporean at a salary of $2,200 (qualifying salary for S-Pass applicants) will have to pay about $350 as the employer’s portion of CPF contribution for hiring that Singaporean worker, but the employer has only to pay $300 levy for hiring a foreigner for the same job, as long as the employer remains within the quota.
“,Even if this levy will be increased to $330 in the year 2015, there is little incentive for the employers to hire Singaporeans because with the foreign worker, the employer may not have to grapple with manpower issues like staff turnover, yearly increments and increased costs related to staff benefits like four months maternity leave, National Service In-Camp Training call up, etc.
“NSP reiterates that the single largest factor that prevented the wages of the citizen workforce from rising is the large supply of foreign workers who are willing to accept lower pay, as it is very convenient for employers to have foreign workers who may not demand better wages, or take up other jobs. This undermines the natural economic forces… and (removes) the impetus for higher wage demands.”
There’s clearly enough work to keep NSP’s central executive committee busy. The CEC will be meeting on Nov 27 to elect a new vice-president, the post  Chong-Aruldoss has held.
 

NS deferment the way to go

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By Mary Lee

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Swimmer Joseph Schooling’s parents should be lauded for pushing for a two-year deferment of his National Service (NS) until 2016. And Mindef needs to be praised because it has done something which it had resisted all along.
It’s about time the rigidity of NS accommodates the nation’s other aspiration — to produce world medal winners.
Sports boys and girls don’t become first-class overnight. It takes years of training to be that fit and talented. When it’s time to go into NS, they’ll still be fit enough to run up slopes with a gun and heavy backpack.
At the school level, the Ministry of Education can make a basic pass in subjects like Mathematics and English a requirement to represent the school in sports (let’s try and avoid raising dumb jocks!)
We already have the Singapore Sports School. Extending NS deferment to its most promising graduands who are good enough to represent Singapore internationally would be a logical way to incentivise our youth. After all, parents are already enrolling their pre-teens in physical training to give these children a headstart in getting direct admission to the Sports School or other schools known for excelling in a sport their child is good at.
If nothing else, NS deferment to groom potential Singaporean stars is much better than buying sportsmen and sportswomen from China with citizenship to win medals.

Kumaran Pillai: Our vote is not cheap, you need to earn it

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Soon after the PAP had its worst electoral showing since Independence in 2011, George Yeo asked rhetorically: Whither Singapore?

Today, 2 1/2 years later, the question to ask is: Whither Opposition?

With the economy humming along and out-performing many other mature economies and housing prices likely to ease in the next few quarters; some feel that the PAP has gained some political ground. Needless to say the ruling party has cranked up their PR machinery.

The PM is on a charm offensive and some of his ministers, especially K Shanmugam, are at it too.

But most of the opposition party leaders are tripping up so often that disillusionment has crept in with adverse remarks about their parties being posted on their Facebook wall.

So, the key question is, has the PAP gained ground?

WP_walkabout
WP MPs Lee Lilian, Chen Show Mao and Pritam Singh on a walkabout

No, says Gerald Giam of the Workers’ Party. He says: “I think the Government has been responding to some of the concerns of the people by changing some policies and starting to fix some problems. However, I have not seen evidence among people I speak to that the PAP has gained ground. The result of the recent by-election in Punggol East seems to point to the contrary.”

According to Giam, the current issues faced by Singaporeans include high cost of living and healthcare, public transport and overcrowding.

Ravi Philemon of the National Solidarity Party says that it is hard to read the current mood of the nation and we should not see the poor turnout at Gilbert Goh’s last anti-immigrant protests held on Oct 5 as the yardstick for opposition politics.

Philemon thinks that Singaporeans are generally not “too confrontational” and we will not know the real ground sentiment until the next general election.

Certainly, the departure of Vincent Wijeysingha from national politics to pursue gay rights and the resignation of Hazel Poa as party boss from NSP does not augur well for the opposition. But Philemon said that their resignations will become a non-issue by the time the next General Elections comes around.

So, what’s next for the opposition? Who are the prime actors and movers in the years to come? What are the primary issues and strategy for opposition parties?

Frankie Low, a former Reform Party member, says that the opposition needs to consolidate before the next general election. “Otherwise, we’ll have more three- corner fights,” he says. “We don’t have the people, resources or money to write elaborate policy papers. Besides, the policy position papers may become outdated by 2016.”

The topic of opposition consolidation comes up from time to time with the likes of Tan Jee Say and Chiam See Tong taking steps to create an alliance of sorts with little success.

On the contrary, we are seeing more splits in the opposition movement. Benjamin Pwee, who contested at Bishan-Toa Payoh with Chiam See Tong, has become his own boss at the Democratic Progressive Party. And Abdul Karim has joined Singapore National Front as Secretary General to reinvigorate the party. They will be contesting in the next GE.

There has also been a lot of chatter about the formation of a third-force riding on the current wave of anti-foreigner sentiments. Chee Soon Juan, Secretary General of Singapore Democratic Party, showed up as a guest speaker at Gilbert’s anti-foreigner protest held at Hong Lim Park.

Some civil activists are concerned about Gilbert’s anti-foreigner rants online and have, in fact, openly rebuked him. Both Wijeysingha and civil activist Jolovan Wham have taken a stand against the rising tide of anti-foreigner sentiment or the “Gilbertism” that has been on the rise.

It is apparent that what started out as a protest against the Population White Paper has become a movement against immigrants in Singapore. What’s even stranger is the fact that Chee is seen “hanging out” with Gilbert when the angst against the PAP and support for Gilbert seems to be waning.

Chee is the same man who said: “A party (SDP) that truly believes in the people, one that seeks to put people before profit, wisdom before wealth and rights before riches, is one that will be on the right side of history.”

What was he thinking: being anti-foreigner and teaming up with Gilbert will put him on the right side of history? One thing for sure, Chee certainly needs a lesson in PR and image management.

There is only one opposition party that has the proven brand equity and political capital to take on the PAP. It is none other than the WP. As for the rest, I’ll be polite about it and call them the nice guys – they have their heart in the right place but not the political smarts to succeed in the short run.

While the more “media savvy” opposition politicians are doing their thing, WP’s strategy is muted. The charged-up party members at WP have been quietly working the ground instead. Giam says: “I certainly see very high energy levels in WP now. We are managing seven divisions, including one GRC and two SMCs, and our members and volunteers are working very hard on the ground to serve residents, often away from the media spotlight.”

“Our plans remain the same: To serve residents of the constituencies that we manage to the best of our abilities, and to voice out the concerns of Singaporeans in Parliament. Our MPs use many different communication channels, including regular house visits and tea sessions with residents, to better understand their needs and concerns.”

Citizens are likely to tell the political parties this: Our votes are not cheap, you need to earn it.

Who understands and acts on this will reap the benefits in the next GE.

China's air, Singapore's benefit

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By Pauline D. Loh in Beijing
Pollution-at-Tiananmen-Square-Beijing

On a good day, you can see a clear sky and the Western Hills in the distance. That’s when Beijingers whip out their iPhones, take a picture and post it on their Weibo or microblog. That’s because blue skies are getting rare, and rarer in the capital city.

On a good day, the PM2.5 reading hovers around the low 30s to maybe 40. It is a reading that refers to the density of particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 microns and a reading of under 25 is considered healthy but anything over 100 is not. A PM 2.5 reading of 300 or more is definitely hazardous to health.

So hazardous, in fact, that it is prompting expatriate families in Beijing to ask for transfers … to Singapore.

Singapore may be plagued by the occasional haze from forest fires of neighboring countries around this time, but compared to the all-year smog that envelopes Beijing, it is an island paradise full of fresh air.

A Dutch family had their baby girl born in Beijing on a day when the PM 2.5 reading hit the mid-300s. The young parents were rightly worried about how their baby would be affected. By the time the baby was one, they decided it was too much of a risk and they asked for a transfer.

“That’s why we ended up in Singapore, it’s extremely better, our doors are open all the time.”

They are not alone. International headhunters are having difficulty finding the right candidates to fill positions for MNCs based in Beijing. Already a hardship post in terms of language and corporate cultures, now there is the additional risk of an unhealthy living environment.

An annual survey by the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing highlights the problems.

The chief challenge named by members taking part in the study was the living environment, which 42 per cent said affected the retaining of expatriate talent.

Beijing’s bad air reputation has travelled far. When the European Chamber of Commerce presented a position paper in Europe recently, the usual concerns on regulatory issues were tossed aside. Instead, the focus was on “what is going on with the living environment in China in terms of the air pollution and the difficulties in finding the right people”.

It is a growing problem, according to Ivo Hahn, managing director for greater China in the Beijing office of recruitment company Stanton Chase International.

“Air pollution and environmental pollution come up very often,” says Hahn. “I have a case even in our own office of somebody, an overseas staff member, requesting to be transferred and his concern is purely pollution.”

But where does the smog come from?

Since 2008 when Beijing hosted the Olympics, the Herculean task of cleaning the stables meant many factories were moved from Beijing to Shijiazhuang, the capital of Hebei Province, about 300km upwind to the north.

Wind has become an important element. It brings the smog, but it also clears the smog to allow Beijingers that brief glimpse of blue skies.

The capital city is surrounded by hills on three sides that trap the smog once it gathers. Only grade 4 to 6 strength winds can blow it away. For a while, that is.

There have been many theories on why the smog gathers even when the wind blows. Beijing’s gridlocked traffic spews out enough particulates seven days a week, from morning to night, and there are still millions in the queue for an entitlement number to buy a car.

Chinese cuisine has been blamed, for its open fire cooking methods. Although that is really hard to take seriously.

A Dutch designer has now suggested a solution: A smog vacuum cleaner that will suck up the particulates in the air and turn them into a gel that he says can be processed and made into jewellery.

Somewhere, some time, there is going to be a whole range of trinkets waiting for the right people to buy them.

Getting an EC vs. BTO Flat: What are the Differences?

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Train passing by an EC

Why does everyone assume you’re rich if you buy an EC? That doesn’t make sense. By the time you make the down payment and cover the installments, the EC means you’re pretty much the opposite of rich. Here’s a run-down on the painful differences, when you choose an EC over a BTO flat:
 

“The train station nearby is a real advantage. No, I can’t say that again louder, I’m already on the loudspeaker.”

Why Executive Condominiums are Different

Executive Condominiums (ECs) are another class of “sandwich” flats, like maisonettes or DBSS flats. They cater to a higher class of poor people: those who can afford better than public housing, but still can’t afford private property. And it would appear that this number is not an insignificant number, with nearly 2,500 units sold as at August this year.
Unlike BTO flats, ECs are built by private developers. They are built by the same companies that put up “real” condominiums, with vast expertise in architecture, lifestyle accommodation, and pretentious French words. And while ECs begin as subsidised housing, they all turn into private housing after 10 years.
This results in four main differences, compared to BTO flats:

  • No HDB Concessionary Loan
  • Resale Rules from the 11th Year Onward
  • Fewer ECs are in Mature Estates
  • Less Predictable Resale Value

1. No HDB Concessionary Loan

“Above all, avoid the ‘super-special concessionary scheme’. It sucks. Now pass me the damn paintbrush.”

If you buy an EC, you need to use a bank loan. We have an article on that, but here’s a quick recap:
A private bank loan only covers 80% of the valuation. Of the remaining 20%, up to 15% can come from grants and your CPF. That means ECs have an absolute minimum of 5% down payment in cash.
For a BTO flat, you have the option of a HDB concessionary loan. That’s why buyers of a BTO flat can have $0 down payments.
If you need more help understanding bank loans, or finding a cheap one, get free comparisons and apply for a loan at SmartLoans.sg.

2. Resale Rules from the 11th Year Onward

Primary school kidAnd by the time we can sell the condo, it will be just enough to pay for PSLE tuition. Perfect.

This is where ECs differ the most value as compared to BTO flats.
From their sixth to 10th years, ECs are sold like regular resale flats; only Singaporeans and Permanent Residents (PRs) can buy them. But from the 11th year, ECs go “fully private”. They can then be sold to foreigners and companies. This is a big deal, because it opens up the range of prospective buyers.
The downside is that, when buying resale ECs after the 11th year, buyers can no longer get housing grants for them. They are well and truly private property by then.
According to Kenneth Kok, who invests in properties in Singapore and Malaysia, this “can make a big difference in resale value.”
Under the new rules, PRs have to wait three years before they can buy a resale flat”, Kenneth says, “But after 11 years, your EC is private property, so PRs can buy without waiting.”
Kenneth adds that the eligibility of foreign buyers also helps:
In general, a bigger pool of prospective buyers bodes well for capital gains. If you are selling a resale flat, you have no chance of tapping into foreign demand for local properties.”

3. Fewer ECs are in Mature Estates

Pack mule“I don’t understand why pizza delivery avoids my place in Woodlands.”

Maybe the builders assumed that, if you can afford an EC, you can afford a car. Whatever the reason, many ECs are located in places where you’d expect to see pack mules or a passing jungle expedition.
A lot of ECs are not in mature estates,” cautions Charlie Sng, a local landlord, “they tend to be in places like Punggol or Woodlands. In 11 years, maybe those places will be more developed. But for now, you should consider the convenience issues of staying there.”
Charlie suggests you consult the Urban Redevelopment Authority’s (URA) Master Plan, if you’re worried about resale value.
“If you are about comfortable living,” he adds, “Don’t just think about barbeque pits and condo clubhouses. Those will be small consolation, when you need to choose between buying a car or a one hour commute to work.”

4. Less Predictable Resale Value

This is where the debate starts. ECs are new as a property type, so there’s a lot of argument about their resale value. The main question is this one:
Will ECs sell for the same value as private condos?
There are two opposing camps on this. Kenneth feels that “There is no reason why they will not…
ECs are built by private developers; they have the same amenities and same quality of finishing. That they are subsidised at the start is completely irrelevant. Why will this matter to future buyers?”
Charlie, however, thinks there is a psychological barrier to EC prices.
Based on the mindset of the market, I don’t think it will be easy to sell an EC as if it were a real condo,” he says, “The fact is, the thinking of most Singaporeans is that ECs are one level ‘below’ condos. They may not be able to accept that they have to buy ECs at the same price as real private property.”

Regardless, both investors agreed that the market is too new; we’ll have to wait for a few years, and see what happens when all the ECs start hitting the open market. Also, both Charlie and Kenneth agreed that most ECs will appreciate better than their BTO counterparts.

An EC is bought at a subsidised price, but sold like a condo,” Charlie says, “and some more they can be sold on the open market, where PRs don’t have to wait and foreigners are eligible to buy. How not to win in capital gains?”
Image Credits:
alantankenghoe, kodomut, kifo, ggalice,
Source: http://www.moneysmart.sg/housing-property/getting-an-ec-vs-getting-a-bto-flat-what-are-the-differences/

Taxi Flag-Down Rates Go Up: What’s the Real Reason?

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Taxi driver

Singapore’s taxi rates are the Bermuda Triangle of finance. If we could replicate them in the stock market, the US would have been celebrating a surplus last July. They have the magical tendency to go only upward, despite nigh-invisible improvements in service and availability.
“Uncle, stop here. I think my second mortgage ran out 200 metres ago”.

How Have Rates Gone Up?

Flag-down rates have risen for new taxi models. Because “What we want are new, more expensive taxis” claimed Singaporeans everywhere, according to the cab company’s imagination.
Some examples are ComfortDelGro’s Hyundai i40, with a flag-down rate of $3.70. SMRT’s Toyota Prius has a flag-down rate of $3.80 (because when you have a hybrid electric designed to use less fuel, it makes sense to charge more for trips.)
Trans-Cab’s Renault Latitude is the most exorbitant, with a flag-down charge of $3.90. For more details, see the coverage on Yahoo!
Over time, existing cabs will be phased out and replaced by these models. After which, the flag-down rates will be restored to their previous levels.
And also, bacon is fat free. Seriously, rates will stay at their wallet-gouging levels, because have you met cab company management? Somali pirates would accuse them of being too mercenary.

The Reasons We Think Flag-Down Rates are Going Up

Of course this is a job of last resort. When driving, I always think about the last resort I stayed at.

In our opinion (and opinion only), these are why flag-down rates are really going up:

  • Incentivise More Pick-ups
  • Lack of Serious Competition
  • Less Affordable Private Transport

1. Incentivise More Pick-Ups

Availability’s a big issue with cab companies. They get assigned COEs based on how available their taxis are; and the more cabs they have, the more money they make.
Problem is, our cab drivers pick up fewer people than a syphilitic drunk in a trendy nightclub. Remember, these people are pretty much self-employed. If they happen to be retirees with a paid-up home loan, they can afford to earn less.
So if one of them decides to queue up at Changi airport all day, and go home after six passengers, what can the cab companies can do?
Since they’re lacking a stick, they’re using a bigger carrot. A higher flag-down fee means more earnings per customer, and hopefully, better availability. This “strategy” is focused on raising the fees so high, even a jaded retiree will bother to start picking people up.
Maybe instead of doing that, they should, I dunno, hire a competent Human Resource manager? How’s that? This is what an interview is for. Weeding out the driven ones who really need the job (and there are plenty of cab drivers who genuinely work hard.)

2. Lack of Serious Competition

taxisEh, it’s a free market and you have a choice okay?

When one cab company raises its price, all the other cab companies follow suit. There’s no threat of a competitor undercutting them by retaining its fares.
(Can you imagine if all the Telcos did that? The people at CASE would burst an artery).
Thing is, a cab company can’t compete that way even if it wanted to. See, a cab company’s revenue doesn’t come from the fees they charge you. Their money comes from renting out their cabs. The drivers pay a rental fee for the use of the cab, and anything they make is theirs to keep.
In short, the drivers are more like clients than employees. And if a company insists their drivers charge less, their drivers will simply join another cab company (thus reducing the company’s rental revenues).
Because of this, all cab companies tend to move in tandem. When one raises fares, the others pretty much have to follow, or risk losing drivers.

3. Less Affordable Private Transport

Sports shoesPictured: Private transport for the middle class.

If you’re taking a cab to get somewhere, chances are it’s because the bus or MRT won’t do. Too slow, the area is inaccessible, etc. So what’s your solution?
Buy a car? I doubt so, considering we have one of the most expensive car markets in the world.
Which leads to the same issue in point 2. Cab companies exist with little or no fear of boycott. Short of disparaging Facebook remarks, there’s nothing you can do about it.

Why Quibble Over a Small Increase?

Obviously, the worry isn’t that a cab ride costs 30+ cents more. The worry is the structure of the taxi industry; there are few checks against its upward price spiral.
Perhaps what we need are more cab companies, without raising the number of COEs set aside for them. The squeeze will prompt a more enthusiastic business approach from cabbies. Otherwise, we might want to reconsider the whole cab rental system.
Image Credits:
David Sifry, tallkev, Vasenka Photography, Lagomorpha,
Source: http://www.moneysmart.sg/money-talks/taxi-flag-down-rates-go-up-whats-the-real-reason/