BEIJING, CHINA: As diplomatic ties between India and China show signs of improvement, a significant development may be on the horizon: the resumption of direct flights and the normalisation of visa procedures between the two countries. These long-standing demands from China are expected to feature prominently in discussions led by India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri, who begins his visit to Beijing on Jan 27.
Indian and Chinese airlines are closely monitoring this potential restoration of air connectivity between the two most populous nations, mainly since no direct flights have occurred between them since 2020. According to data, Indian airlines like IndiGo and Air India operated 168 direct flights to China in December 2019, accounting for about 31% of total scheduled flights between the two countries, as reported by KKN.
These flights significantly facilitated business, tourism, and cultural intermingling. However, direct passenger flights have been suspended due to stringent COVID-19 restrictions and ongoing diplomatic tensions in 2020. This lack of direct connectivity has also forced travellers to rely on connecting hubs in South and Southeast Asia, including Singapore, Vietnam, and Bangladesh.
Implications of easing India-China tensions
Stringent visa policies have hampered travel for businesses, students, and tourists. Easing these restrictions would reignite business exchanges, educational opportunities, and tourism, fostering stronger connections. This increased interaction may reduce tensions and enhance mutual understanding between the two nations, promoting regional stability.
Economically, reopening travel links would likely improve bilateral trade and investment. Logistical challenges and diplomatic disagreements have strained these due to travel restrictions, which are still present. However, despite these tensions, China remains one of India’s largest trading partners, so the availability of a direct route could strengthen economic collaboration.
Resuming these connections would also boost related sectors like hospitality, retail, and education and help the aviation industry recover from the pandemic’s financial impact. The India-China route was previously a key market segment for both nations’ airlines, including IndiGo, Air India, Air China, and China Southern, so the re-establishment of direct connectivity will likely impact these airlines’ performances.
The policy’s effect on connecting hubs
Other countries have capitalised on the policy changes introduced in 2020. The Indian Express reported that over 98,000 passengers travelling between India and China transited through Singapore between January and October 2024, a 16.6% rise compared to the same period in 2019.
This increase is attributed to the Singapore Airlines group’s offering connections from several Indian airports to various destinations in China via Singapore. As a result, Singapore has become the second-largest connecting hub for India-China travellers, up from third place in 2019, with Hong Kong retaining the top spot.
Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, saw the number of India-China connecting passengers grow from just over 4,500 in the first 10 months of 2019 to more than 30,000 during the same period in 2024, driven by Bangladeshi airlines USBangla and Biman Bangladesh.
Similarly, Vietnam’s airports in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, which had almost no India-China connecting passengers in 2019, handled nearly 20,000 travellers between January and October 2024. This increase can be attributed to Vietjet Air and Vietnam Airlines expanding their networks to attract transfer traffic.
As relations between India and China improve, Singapore, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and other regions offering connecting flights will likely face some inevitable losses.
Careful optimism exercised
Despite the positive outlook, problems may still arise. Geopolitical tensions and differing health protocols could slow progress. Regulatory issues and traveller safety concerns must also be resolved. Clear communication from both governments on health measures, visa rules, and flight schedules will be key to rebuilding trust.
Experts see this moment as an opportunity for both nations to reset their relations. By resolving connectivity issues, India and China could take a meaningful step toward overcoming broader disagreements and fostering a more cooperative region.
Featured image by Depositphotos (for illustration purposes only)