USA: A significant shift is anticipated in the American job market, with dozens of middle-class jobs poised to contract, potentially displacing hundreds of thousands of workers in well-paying roles.
According to recent data from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published by CBS News, more than 600,000 middle-class jobs—typically paying between $40,000 and over $100,000 annually—are expected to vanish by 2033.
Labor market transitions
This transformation is fueled by several factors, including the rise of artificial intelligence and evolving consumer behaviours that reduce the need for a human workforce.
While the overall job market is projected to add approximately 6.7 million new positions by 2033, certain sectors will experience substantial declines, creating a landscape of distinct winners and losers.
Experts emphasize that careers requiring postsecondary education, such as professional certificates or college degrees, will see the most growth.
Nicole Smith, chief economist at Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce, explains, “The world of work is evolving. We’re witnessing a transition in the labor market, where many new jobs will demand postsecondary credentials.”
She adds that while certain roles may disappear, workers who remain in their fields may need to acquire skills that enable them to adapt to technological advancements, including automation.
Entry-level positions are vulnerable
Change is a constant in the American labour market. Over the last century, the U.S. has transitioned from an agricultural and manufacturing economy to a service-oriented one.
However, such transitions can be challenging. Workers often find themselves unprepared to shift into new roles, particularly as technology advances.
Among the most vulnerable are entry-level office positions, such as clerks responsible for answering phones, scheduling appointments, and filing paperwork.
The BLS predicts a 6% decline in this occupation, translating to nearly 150,000 job losses—a trend that has been ongoing for several years due to technological advancements.
Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, highlights the difficulties many clerks may face in adapting to new roles, particularly if they lack the skills needed for higher-paying, more technical positions.
Similarly, once-coveted computer programming roles are also expected to shrink, with the BLS projecting a 10% decrease in demand for programmers by 2033 as automation increases efficiency.
STEM-related jobs predicted to rise
On a brighter note, many STEM-related fields are predicted to flourish, with the BLS estimating the addition of over 300,000 new software developer positions in the next decade.
Furthermore, a July report from Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce indicates that about 15.2 million new middle-class jobs will emerge by 2031, primarily for workers with postsecondary education.
Despite this growth, there are concerns about the rising scepticism surrounding the value of a college degree. A March survey from the Pew Research Center revealed that only 25% of Americans believe a bachelor’s degree is essential for securing a well-paying job.
Yet, Georgetown’s analysis suggests that landing a good job may become increasingly difficult without some form of additional education beyond high school.
“There’s a debate about whether a bachelor’s degree should be the standard,” Smith notes. “However, challenges arise when we suggest that no degree is needed at all.”
Specialized training is vital to survive
While many decent-paying jobs may decline in the coming years, numerous sectors are set to thrive, particularly those demanding specialized training and education.
For instance, the CHIPS and Science Act is investing billions in new semiconductor manufacturing plants across the U.S., which are expected to create tens of thousands of jobs. However, many of these positions require specific training beyond a high school diploma.
“They require you to sit down in a community college for six months to a year to acquire the skills needed to operate those machines,” Smith explains. “These are not skills you walk away from high school with.”
The American job market is on the cusp of significant change, with both challenges and opportunities on the horizon.
As the demand for skilled workers grows, education and specialized training will become increasingly vital for those looking to secure their place in the evolving economy.