SOUTHEAST ASIA: As the Chinese New Year holiday unfolds, an unsettling incident has caused a significant shift in travel trends for Chinese tourists. Concerns surrounding the kidnapping of actor Wang Xing in Thailand have prompted many to cancel their planned trips to Southeast Asia, particularly Thailand. This sudden change in travel behaviour is closely monitored, highlighting shifting attitudes toward safety and geopolitics among Chinese travellers.

Thailand faces a major decline in bookings

According to a CNBC report, new data from China Trading Desk reveals a stark 15.6% drop in Chinese bookings to Thailand from Jan 13 – 20, following the news of Mr Wang’s dramatic rescue from a scamming compound near the Thai-Myanmar border. The incident, which involved Mr Wang being lured to Thailand under pretences, has heightened fears among travellers, leading to cancellations not only in Thailand but also in nearby Southeast Asian nations.

Subramania Bhatt, CEO of aviation analytics company VariFlight, noted that while the drop in Thai bookings is most severe, other countries in the region, including Vietnam, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, have also seen cancellations, though to a lesser extent. “A lot of folks plan to travel around the region as a single trip,” Mr Bhatt explained, suggesting cancellations in one country are often part of broader changes in travel plans.

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Shifting preferences — Chinese travellers look elsewhere

The fear sparked by the Wang Xing case is having ripple effects on the broader Southeast Asia market, with Chinese tourists seeking alternative destinations. Data from China Trading Desk highlights a rise in bookings to countries such as Australia, South Korea, and the United Arab Emirates, showing a shift away from the region. Analysts suggest that these destinations may benefit from the cautious approach towards Southeast Asia, with Japan also seeing strong interest from Chinese tourists.

Yang Lei, an analyst at China Galaxy International, commented on the shift in Chinese travel behaviour, noting that popular destinations like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the United States are poised to increase bookings during the Chinese New Year. “Currently, Chinese people are becoming more cautious to go to Thailand and some other Southeast countries,” Ms Yang said.

Southeast Asia faces challenges but shows resilience

Despite the decline in Thai bookings, Southeast Asia is not losing out. Singapore and Malaysia, in particular, benefit from the change in travel patterns, with flight bookings to these countries up by 14.2% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 2019. South Korea is also expected to recover entirely from Chinese tourist arrivals during the festive period.

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However, Thailand’s tourism industry is under pressure. The government is trying to reassure Chinese travellers, with the Thai Prime Minister appearing in an AI-generated video on social media to emphasize the safety of visiting the country. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to restore trust in Thailand as a tourist destination following rising concerns over cross-border scams and human trafficking, fuelled by actual incidents and fictional portrayals like the 2023 Chinese film “No More Bets”.

While Southeast Asia’s tourism sector faces challenges, experts predict a rebound in Chinese travel over the coming months. Mr Bhatt, however, cautioned that the overall recovery of outbound Chinese tourism remains uneven. Long-haul destinations like Europe and the U.S. still face higher costs, and geopolitical concerns may deter some travellers.

With outbound Chinese tourism expected to see a record-breaking nine billion trips during the 40-day Chinese New Year rush, the changing preferences of Chinese travellers underscore the growing importance of safety and political neutrality in shaping future travel trends.