Resale flat prices in Singapore’s public Housing and Development Board (HDB) market are expected to moderate, but the island’s “two-speed” private property market presents a mixed scenario. The good news comes from the government — and the less upbeat from international media.
HDB resale prices are likely to ease as more flats reach their minimum occupation period (MOP) starting next year, Minister for National Development Chee Hong Tat said on Wednesday (May 28) in his first media comments since assuming his role.
The five-year MOP is the minimum time new flat owners must wait before selling.
This coming wave of resale flats, combined with the steady launch of Build-to-Order (BTO) flats — 19,600 planned for 2025, and 102,300 launched between 2021 and 2025 — is expected to relieve upward pressure on prices.
Signs of this cooling are already apparent. HDB data for Q1 2025 showed resale prices rising just 1.6 per cent — the slowest increase since Q4 2023.
Public resale transactions rose 2.6 per cent to 6,590 in Q1 2025, up from 6,424 in the previous quarter. Year-on-year, however, sales were down 6.8 per cent.
According to a February report by property agency OrangeTee, the number of flats reaching MOP will fall for a third straight year — from 30,920 in 2022 to 6,974 in 2025. That’s the lowest in 11 years, with only 5,301 units hitting MOP in 2014.
Still, analysts believe a sharp spike in resale prices is “unlikely”, thanks to the continued supply of BTO flats.
In contrast, Singapore’s private housing sector is running at two speeds. While demand for mass-market suburban homes remains strong among locals, the high-end condo segment — once buoyed by foreign money — is more sluggish.
A split market
Bloomberg columnist Andy Mukherjee notes this divergence began two years ago, when Singapore doubled stamp duties on foreign buyers to 60%. The move cooled the once red-hot luxury segment, especially among Chinese investors. As a result, luxury condo prices rose just 19% over five years, while mass-market homes jumped 46%.
Still, new private home sales fell slightly in April, dipping to 663 units from 729 in March. Much of this is due to the heavy supply of high-end city-centre units, which lack the pull of more affordable suburban offerings. Indeed, earlier in the year, launches in the east and northeast posted striking take-up rates of 90% to 95%.
Fuelled by HDB gains
The resilience of suburban private housing is closely tied to the thriving HDB resale market, according to Mukherjee. Prices of HDB flats have outpaced private homes since the pandemic, enabling many Singaporeans to unlock capital gains after meeting their five-year MOP. These gains are often reinvested in private property.
Forecasts differ — Savills projects up to 7% growth in private home prices this year, while Bloomberg Intelligence suggests a more modest 3%. But underlying demand remains strong.
Singapore’s low unemployment (just over 2%) and a 20% rise in median household income since the pandemic support this trend, says Mukherjee. Buyers are now accustomed to paying over S$2,000 ($1,550) per square foot even in outlying areas, particularly where infrastructure and amenities are improving.
One-bedroom units outside the central zone are in high demand — a sign of a healthy appetite for investment and rental properties.
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