Resale home transactions expected to decline in 2024, predict real estate experts

SINGAPORE: Real estate experts are forecasting a decline in the number of private home resale transactions in 2024 due to the effects of ongoing “cooling measures” and a persistently tight lending environment.

Recent estimates from OrangeTee indicate that resale volumes could drop from 11,329 units in 2023 to somewhere between 9,000 and 11,000 units in 2024, signaling a potential slowdown in the real estate market.

In the first quarter of 2024, a total of 2,603 homes were resold, excluding executive condominiums. Out of these, 2,276 were non-landed properties, while 327 were landed. This figure represents a 7.2% quarter-on-quarter decline from the fourth quarter of 2023, where 2,806 units exchanged hands. This marks the third consecutive quarter of contraction in resale transactions.

In addition to an overall decrease in resale transactions, OrangeTee noted a drop in resale volumes in both the city fringe and suburban areas. In the city fringe, or Rest of Central Region (RCR), transactions fell by 10.2% quarter-on-quarter to 769 units, while in the suburban, or Outside Central Region (OCR), transactions dropped by 8.4% to 1,333 units.

Despite this decline, the proportion of total resale transactions in the prime Core Central Region (CCR) rose from 17.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 19.2% in the first quarter of 2024.

This shift suggests that while overall resale volumes are decreasing, the prime central market continues to attract buyer interest. In contrast, the proportion of resale homes in OCR dipped from 51.9% to 51.2%, while those in RCR fell from 30.5% to 29.5%.

When it comes to resale prices, OrangeTee predicts a slowdown in growth, projecting that prices could increase between 3% and 5% in 2024.

In the first quarter of 2024, the average price of resale homes, excluding executive condominiums, rose by 1.4% to $1,691 per square foot (psf). This modest increase in price, despite a decline in transaction volume, suggests that the market is responding to regulatory and lending pressures while still maintaining a level of resilience.

Given these trends, real estate experts recommend that buyers and sellers alike carefully assess the market conditions and lending environment in 2024. While resale transactions are expected to decline, the impact on prices remains uncertain, with potential growth at a more moderated pace.