SINGAPORE: Interest rate cuts expected in September are likely to benefit real estate investment trusts (REITs) due to their strong connection to rate changes. However, experts note that the impact will be felt more quickly by REITs with a smaller portion of loans secured at fixed rates.
Experts are anticipating two rate cuts of 25 basis points each in 2024.
DBS experts said that REITs with over 20% of their loans unhedged will see the most immediate gains, as reported by Singapore Business Review.
DBS said CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDLHT) and Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT) are likely to benefit the most from the rate reductions.
Other REITs likely to gain include Suntec REIT (SUN), Lendlease Global Commercial REIT (LREIT), and OUE Commercial REIT (OUECT), as they have only 50-60% of their loans secured at fixed rates.
DBS also forecasts that the average financing cost for Singapore REITs (S-REITs) could drop by 30 basis points, from 3.9% to 3.6%, if the three-month swap rate falls by one percentage point.
In terms of sectors, the retail sector is expected to benefit the most from the rate cuts as we move into late 2024 and 2025. In addition, the industrial, hotel, and office sectors are also anticipated to see gains.
DBS noted that the retail, office, and warehouse sectors are expected to maintain strong growth momentum in the second half of 2024.
However, hotel REITs might face challenges. The hotel sector could experience reduced demand in the second half of 2024 due to price sensitivity and a slower-than-expected demand recovery in China. /TISG
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