Prices of private homes, HDB resale flat rise for 11 consecutive quarters, but may soon stabilise

SINGAPORE — To answer whether private residential property prices will continue to rise, PropertyGuru, the leading property website, wrote, “This quarter saw a modest 0.4% increase in overall private property prices in Q4 2022, indicating prices might be finally stabilising. The full impact of the September 2022 property cooling measures will likely be felt in the coming quarter.”

But the site warned that prices of private properties in the resale segment are not likely to decrease any time soon because of the “limited supply and owners being unlikely to lower their prices in the short term, barring the risk of an economic correction.” However, launches for this year are expected to do well, “but their performance is largely linked to the limited options in the immediate term,” PropertyGuru added.

HDB prices

As for the Housing Development Board (HDB) resale market, its resale price index saw a 2.3 per cent increase last year, from 168.1 points in Q3 2022 to 171.9 points in Q4 2022, which also means eleven consecutive quarters of the price increase.

The demand for HDB resale flats remains strong, it added.

The prices of resale flats have continued to rise due to the following factors: enduring buying preference for larger resale flats and a record number of million-dollar HDB flat transactions last year. However, because of the completion of more BTO projects and more BTO flats launched quarterly, the demand for reals flats is expected to taper off gradually this year.

And barring economic shocks, the HDB resale market should stabilise in the coming quarter, PropertyGuru added.

“About 16,000 flats are expected to fulfill their Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) in 2023. They are located in areas such as Bukit Batok, Yishun, Buangkok, and Sembawang. As a result, these HDB estates are likely to see greater resale flat price growth in the coming year as increased borrowing costs and rising HDB resale prices continue to eat into the budgets of prospective buyers, especially first-time homeowners.”

Private residential property prices

In comparison, there was a 3.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter increase in the third quarter of last year. The slight growth in prices at the end of last year may be a sign that these may finally be stabilizing, PropertyGuru added.

The commentary also says that the full impact of property cooling measures introduced last September cannot be assessed quite yet, due to higher interest rates and the large number of people who travelled abroad in the last quarter of 2022, as well as the lack of major new launches, as these were partially responsible for lower prices and sales transaction volumes.

PropertyGuru also listed the reasons for the rise in private home prices, which include the decline of price growth in the Outside Central Region (OCR) because of the lack of new major condominium launches at the end of 2022. Another factor is slowing price growth for non-landed private properties in the Core Central Region (CCR). Additionally, PropertyGuru pointed out that while resale transaction prices are higher, the actual transaction volume has continued to go down. /TISG

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