The virus causing  the Covid-19  pandemic may not be done mutating yet, but an American research scientist  thinks that mutations could be slowing down. 

The scientific name of the virus is SARS-CoV-2.

Dr Trevor Bedford, associate professor in bioinformatics at Seattle’s Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, explained his thinking in a series of tweets on Monday (Nov 15)

The evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the past year has been remarkable with Delta increasing transmissibility by perhaps 2.2X over "non-variant" viruses. 1/14https://t.co/CGZN5jvQEF

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) November 15, 2021

Dr Bedford, who works in  the vaccines and infectious diseases division, is  a 2021 recipient of the MacArthur Fellowship, also known as the “genius award”. He uses computers and statistical methods to study the spread and the evolution of viruses, including those responsible for the Covid-19 pandemic.

His biography page describes him as a “leading advocate for the immediate release of research analyzing viral evolution during epidemics, fresh information that can make a lifesaving difference”.

He first noted in his tweet thread that the evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 “has been remarkable,” producing the Delta variant that ended up more than twice as transmissible than the original virus.

But as SARS-CoV-2 has adapted to the human body, its mutation can be expected to slow down. Dr Bedford believes this has already occurred, noting that the virus has been mutating at a slower pace since October of last year, and is likely to keep slowing down.

And when new mutations that will help the virus survive do occur, they’ll also do so more slowly.  But that is not the end of this deadly virus.

“I highly doubt that SARS-CoV-2 has hit a wall in terms of its evolutionary potential, but I do think it’s safe to conclude that evolution, at least in terms of S1 (mutations), has been slowing in the past year and a half,” he tweeted.

I highly doubt that SARS-CoV-2 has hit a wall in terms of its evolutionary potential, but I do think it's safe to conclude that evolution, at least in terms of S1, has been slowing in the past year and a half. 13/14

— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) November 15, 2021

Dr Bedford said in his tweets that the Delta variant became the only “virus standing” after SARS-CoV-2’s exponential growth early this year.

And the Delta variant has gone on to already mutate. One particular strain called the AY.4.2, or the “Delta Plus” variant, now dominant in the United Kingdom, could possibly be slightly more transmissible but may not necessarily be more dangerous.

UK health officials are watching the variant closely, having dubbed it a “Variant Under Investigation,” but preliminary research results indicate it does not significantly affect vaccine effectiveness, compared with the original Delta strain, Reuters reported on Nov 16.

And while the AY.4.2 variant spread in England, the same swift transmission  has not been seen yet in other countries.

“I’m personally not overly worried about AY.4.2,” tweeted Francois Balloux, the director of the genetics institute at University College London on Nov 15.

Top US infectious diseases public official Anthony Fauci has also recently been optimistic about the virus’ trajectory, saying that if the US’ vaccination and booster rates increase, the status of Covid-19 may be downgraded from pandemic to endemic.

With over 70 per cent of US adultsvaccinated, Dr Fauci thinks that adding to the number and making booster jabs available to all could let the US gain control over the virus by next spring.

“To me, if you want to get to endemic, you have got to get the level of infection so low that it does not have an impact on society, on your life, on your economy,” he added. /TISG

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