China sets strategic preconditions for Xi-Lee summit amid Indo-Pacific tensions

BEIJING: Chinese President Xi Jinping welcomed South Korean President Lee Jae-myung on a high-profile state visit this week, but behind the formal handshakes and photo ops, intelligence reports suggest Beijing is bringing a long list of demands to the table. Sources say one key condition: Seoul must publicly reaffirm the “one-China” principle.

A Taiwanese national security official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said China has outlined four main prerequisites for the summit. Among them: South Korea must officially declare its support for the “one-China” policy, avoid using U.S.-linked defence products in the Indo-Pacific, decline deployment of the Typhon missile system, and oppose any expansion of U.S. military operations in the region.

The official noted that since November, China has been steadily asserting influence across the Indo-Pacific and nearby island chains, simultaneously testing the U.S.’s commitment to regional security after Washington released its latest National Security Strategy.

“After attempts to pressure Japan and provoke the Philippines didn’t produce much, China is now looking at South Korea as a potential weak spot,” the official said. The situation is made even more complex by Russia, which began a month-long series of military drills near Japan’s northern territories last Thursday.

The stakes are bigger than just one bilateral meeting. According to the source, China hopes to redefine its ties with South Korea as a “strategic partnership,” which could weaken the U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral alliance and dilute the broader democratic alignment in the Indo-Pacific.

However, it’s not all about demands. Beijing is reportedly offering Seoul a set of incentives in return: lifting sanctions on subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Group, allowing Korean entertainers to perform again in China, increasing Chinese tourism to South Korea—tripling visitor numbers in the first half of the year and quintupling in the second—and even helping facilitate dialogue between the two Koreas.

The summit comes amid wider regional unrest. Across the so-called “CRINK” group of countries—China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea—instability is growing, especially in Iran, where protests have drawn the attention of both state media and social media users. Analysts say Beijing feels pressure from these global developments and is seeking stronger partnerships, including with Seoul, to manage North Korea and protect its own stability.

For now, all eyes are on the Xi-Lee summit—not just for what it says about China and South Korea, but for how it could shift the balance of power across the Indo-Pacific.