SINGAPORE: In a June 21 (Sunday) Facebook post, the former diplomat Bilahari Kausikan took exception to an analysis in the New York Times that said the war in Iran had brought about relatively little change.
Although he acknowledged that the conflict did not eliminate threats from Iran, he argued that it was never the United States’ main objective, and added that the war had significantly weakened Iran.
However, he went on to criticise commentary in Singapore regarding the conflict.
“A disturbing aspect of recent wars is how many Singaporeans (including SPH journalists) are aping anti-Trump Western commentators rather than exercising independent judgments. There is a lot to dislike about this US administration, but that does not mean we should not use our own critical faculties,” Mr Bilahari, a former permanent secretary of Singapore’s foreign service who also used to be Singapore’s permanent representative to the United Nations, wrote.
The piece Mr Bilahari shared, What Changed After Almost Four Months of War? Analysts say not much.
A memorandum of understanding was signed last week between the US and Iran. However, while President Donald Trump had set ambitious goals at the beginning of the conflict, analysts say that what has actually been achieved is unclear.
For example, Iran’s nuclear program has not been eliminated, its ballistic missile program remains intact, and its regime, despite significant losses, has survived. Furthermore, fighting between Hezbollah and Israel has continued, and perhaps most significantly to the rest of the world, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is still uncertain.
The article quotes one analyst as saying, “I’m sceptical that much progress will be made on the nuclear issue now that the U.S. has removed the main leverage that it has. So in a way, this deal is a bit of a nothing burger at the end of this very long and devastating war.”
Mr Bilahari pointed out that Iran’s nuclear ambitions are now further out of reach, given how much the war has affected its economy. He also pointed out that the other Gulf states have hardened toward Iran.
“Closure of the Straits of Hormuz has proven an effective weapon, but the blockade of Iran has also proven effective. Closure of the Straits is a weapon that can only be effectively deployed only once — the Gulf will certainly build infrastructure to bypass the Straits, and the UAE has already begun to do so,” he added. /TISG
Read also: Bilahari Kausikan says US-China tensions are not a “new Cold War”
