China tightens grip on Central Asia, leaving global rivals in the dust

INTERNATIONAL: At the core of Eurasia, China is silently but definitively reshaping its role as an overriding force in Central Asia. The latest China–Central Asia Summit, held in Kazakhstan, signified a critical juncture in this transformation.

According to a recent MSN report, the six participating presidents presented not only fresh diplomatic pledges but tangible economic assurances, demonstrating China’s growing tactical impact in a region once inflexibly within Russia’s sphere of influence.

From trade partner to strategic pillar

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s pronouncement that dealings with China had reached the level of an “eternal, all-climate, and comprehensive strategic partnership” summed up the disposition of the summit. China’s economic track in the region is now inimitable, accounting for approximately 40% of Central Asia’s aggregate foreign trade in 2024, with Kazakhstan alone representing virtually half of that volume.

This mounting interdependency was further fortified by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s commitment of 1.5 billion yuan (€182 million) in grants for social advancement, an inimitable exercise of ‘subtle power.’ The leaders also inked the Treaty on Eternal Good-Neighbourliness, Friendship, and Cooperation, supporting shared respect for sovereignty and each other’s preferred paths to development.

A balancing act in a shifting geopolitical landscape

While Russia’s concentration remains fixated on the war in Ukraine, China has grabbed the moment to position itself as a firmer and more engaged ally. Beijing’s outreach, however, does not completely cut out Moscow. Collective cultural and historical bonds guarantee Russia retains its impact, but the economic reality is changing. Trade with China continues to climb, with Uzbekistan alone aiming to reach €17.4 billion in trade income and boasting a €52.2 billion investment portfolio with China.

Significantly, China is investing profoundly in infrastructure that sidesteps Russia overall. The long-projected China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railroad track and the upgrading of the Middle Corridor (connecting China to Europe through Central Asia and the South Caucasus) echo Beijing’s resolve to lessen logistical reliance on Russian routes. These advancements are in line with China’s calculated objective to produce alternate land routes amid escalating geopolitical ambiguity.

Grants amid debt diplomacy: A calculated exception

China’s 1.5-billion-yuan development contribution to Central Asia is conspicuous, particularly given Beijing’s developing role from creditor to debt collector. In 2025, some of the world’s most deprived nations will compensate a record €19.2 billion to China. Yet, Central Asia seems to gain from an exclusion to this tightening approach, highlighting its significance to Beijing’s plans.

According to the Lowy Institute, only an exclusive group of tactically important debtors continues to have buoyant Chinese lending. Central Asia belongs to this group. While debt apprehensions remain high in countries like Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, the new funding marks a more lenient, more flexible Chinese slant in the region, one that intends to gain allegiance and long-standing influence.

Europe enters the fray – a growing multilateral dynamic

As China exerts greater dominance, the EU is also making an intensive push to build alliances in Central Asia. In April, EU leaders conducted their own high-level meeting with regional counterparts, aiming to position the coalition as a harmonising player between China and Russia.

For Central Asian leaders, Europe provides a valuable change strategy. Outside of trade paths, the EU’s stress on building local businesses and industrial manufacturing, thereby creating employment opportunities, resonates. “It’s not only about building a corridor between two regions,” noted Uzbek presidential representative Azizbek Urunov. “It’s about unused opportunities for investment cooperation.”

In this developing geopolitical threesome, Central Asia is no longer an inactive space between prodigious powers. Instead, it is evolving as a region of choice, where leaders are vigorously moulding their future by interacting with a combination of old partners and new powerhouses. With China leading the race at present, the rivalry for influence in Central Asia is just beginning.