Singapore economy expected to grow by 2.6% – higher than previous forecasts

SINGAPORE: Singapore’s economy is forecasted to grow by 2.6% in 2024, outperforming earlier predictions as the country’s second-quarter GDP growth exceeded expectations, according to the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).

The September 2024 edition of the MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters highlights an upward revision in the nation’s economic outlook for the year, driven by better-than-expected performance across key sectors.

The economy expanded by 2.9% year-on-year (YoY) in the second quarter, surpassing the median forecast of 2.7%. As a result, the most probable scenario for the whole of 2024 is a GDP growth between 2.5% and 2.9%, with an average likelihood of 39%, the MAS survey reveals. For 2025, GDP is expected to grow at a slightly lower rate, ranging from 2.5% to 2.9%.

The survey, which polled 21 economists and analysts, saw them revising their projections for several critical sectors, including finance & insurance, construction, and wholesale & retail trade. The finance & insurance sector is now expected to grow by 5.7% YoY in 2024, up from the previous forecast of 5.1%.

The wholesale & retail trade sector is forecasted to grow by 3% YoY, an improvement from the 2.5% projected earlier. Meanwhile, the construction sector is anticipated to grow by 3.9% YoY, a slight increase from the previous forecast of 3.8%.

On the other hand, the outlook for the manufacturing sector and the accommodation & food services sector has been downgraded. Manufacturing is expected to grow by only 0.6% YoY in 2024, while the accommodation & food services sector is forecasted to expand by 2.9% YoY, both lower than previous estimates.

Additionally, non-oil domestic exports have seen a downward revision, with forecasted growth of 3% YoY in 2024, compared to the earlier prediction of 4%. However, private consumption has been revised upwards, with an expected growth of 5.5% YoY, significantly higher than the 3.4% YoY growth projected in June.