Manila and Beijing talk coastguard peace — but can you really shake hands while holding a gun?

MANILA/BEIJING: As pressures fester in the disputed waters of the South China Sea, the Philippines and China are taking watchful moves on the way to collaboration — this time through a planned coastguard arrangement designed to ease resistance and chafing and to prevent risky episodes at sea.

The plan, still in the works, comes after a series of close calls and confrontations, the most recent of which occurred just days ago.

Aiming for calm amid the storm

Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro announced on Tuesday that both countries are negotiating a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to guide how their coastguards interact in disputed waters. The hope? Strong and clear-cut communication and established conventions that lessen the risk of war.

“This is about reaching an agreement on issues involving both sides,” Lazaro told lawmakers during a Senate hearing. She expressed optimism that better communication could help prevent potentially violent flashpoints.

The initiative follows an Oct 12 incident near Pag-asa (Thitu) Island, where a Chinese coastguard ship reportedly rammed a Philippine fisheries vessel delivering supplies. The Philippine side confirmed that the ship suffered “minor structural damage.”

Such encounters aren’t new. China claims nearly the entire South China Sea, brushing aside a 2016 international tribunal ruling that favoured the Philippines and other Southeast Asian nations.

Promises and pitfalls

Security analysts say the renewed diplomatic effort is a step in the right direction — but warn that it may not be enough without meaningful structural reforms.

“Good intentions alone won’t be enough,” said Sherwin Ona, an international fellow at the Institute for National Defence and Security Research in Taiwan. “We’ve seen cooperative efforts before, but they faltered due to conflicting claims and a lack of trust.”

Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Jay Tarriela stressed that any agreement will not affect the country’s sovereignty claims. He pointed out that the cooperation could focus on less controversial areas, like search and rescue or environmental protection in waters Manila refers to as the West Philippine Sea.

Scepticism, strategy, and the long game

Even if the pact moves forward, experts doubt it will bring quick or sweeping changes. Chester Cabalza, a security analyst, said the Marcos administration may slightly tone down its transparency efforts — such as publishing videos of maritime confrontations — but is unlikely to abandon them.

“The Coast Guard may decelerate public disclosures, but it won’t halt them,” he said.

Still, some believe the proposed pact could be a stepping stone towards something bigger — like a regional code of conduct. With the Philippines slated and prepped to head ASEAN in 2026, a fruitful arrangement with China could improve its diplomatic standing and impact.

However, trouble spots remain. One flashpoint is the Scarborough Shoal, where China recently declared a marine nature reserve — a move the Philippines blasted as “illegitimate and unlawful.” Lazaro confirmed the issue would be brought up in future talks with Beijing.

From symbolism to substance?

Ona stressed that for the arrangement to work, it must cover concrete, enforceable details — not just political niceties.

“This can’t just be symbolic,” he said. “We need direct communication hotlines, a ban on aggressive actions like ramming or water cannon use, and a commitment to follow maritime law and professional conduct.”

Cabalza agreed, saying the MOU could help create clearer rules of engagement in one of the world’s most contested maritime regions.

“This is a chance to move from trial-and-error diplomacy to something more structured and reliable,” he said.

As the Philippines and China inch closer to agreement, much of the region — and the world — will be watching to see if this latest initiative can finally bring a measure of calm to the rough waters of the South China Sea.