Economist lowers Q2 2024 GDP growth forecast for Singapore to 2.6% YoY – lower than Govt’s advance estimate

SINGAPORE: Experts from RHB have revised their Q2 2024 growth forecast for Singapore, lowering it to 2.6% year-on-year (YoY). This adjustment follows a significant contraction in the country’s manufacturing output for June. The new forecast is notably below the Singapore government’s advance estimate, which predicted a 2.9% YoY growth for the same period.

The primary factor behind RHB’s revised forecast is the 3.9% YoY decrease in manufacturing output reported for June. This downturn has raised concerns about the overall economic performance for the quarter and its potential impact on annual growth projections.

Despite the lower Q2 outlook, RHB told Singapore Business Review that it has maintained its full-year GDP growth forecast for Singapore at 2.5%. However, the firm has cautioned about possible downside risks that could affect this projection.

RHB said, “We believe manufacturers’ confidence may take a more cautious tone from now on, especially given the higher probability of a Trump-win in the upcoming 60th US Presidential elections, which could translate into the deterioration of risk appetite into China and ASEAN, and lift global inflation from primary and secondary effects from US-centric protectionistic policies.”

TISG/