Alarm bells for ASEAN: New study says Southeast Asia is fueling global warming

Southeast Asia, home to some of the world’s richest forests and wetlands, is now a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions.

A new regional study shows that human activities—like deforestation, draining peatlands, fires, and a rapid increase in fossil fuel use—are producing more emissions than the region’s natural ecosystems can absorb. Initiated by Hiroshima University and published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles, the study emphasises a pressing reality —the region can’t confront climate change and gas emissions on its own; it needs collaboration from other nations and agencies, and time is running out.

Forests, fires, and fossil fuels: What’s driving emissions

Looking at data from 2000 to 2019, the research team tracked emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide across Southeast Asia. The biggest culprit? Cutting down forests and converting land for other uses. Even though forests try to regrow, they simply can’t keep up.

Fires—especially peat fires that flare up during El Niño dry spells—and the drying of peatlands add even more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. On top of that, emissions from fossil fuels have skyrocketed, rising nearly 50% over the study period. Coal use in particular has surged, overtaking oil by 2018. “If all the planned coal plants are built, emissions from the power sector could climb even higher, making climate neutrality even harder to reach,” says Masayuki Kondo, the study’s lead author.

One surprising finding is how little monitoring exists in parts of the region, making it harder to know exactly how much is being emitted or absorbed. To help, researchers have launched an international network called the League of Geophysical Research eXcellences for Tropical Asia, or LeXtra. The goal is to improve monitoring, data-sharing, and climate modelling across Southeast Asia.

By clearly identifying where emissions come from—and where nature still absorbs carbon—the study offers hope. “The biggest impact comes from reducing emissions from land-use change and fossil fuels,” Kondo explains. “Southeast Asia still has a chance to grow its economy while protecting the climate, but the window of opportunity is closing fast.”