CHINA: In a remarkable demographic shift, China is on the brink of a new era in choosing to have pets over kids.
This trend, highlighted in a recent Goldman Sachs report, reflects a growing preference for pet guardianship over human parenthood as the country grapples with a declining birth rate and a shrinking pool of women of childbearing age.
The report, led by analyst Valerie Zhou, predicts that the number of pets in China will nearly double that of children under four by the decade’s end. This projection underscores the profound challenges facing the world’s second-largest economy, with marriages expected to hit a 45-year low in 2024.
The Ministry of Civil Affairs reported a significant drop in marriage registrations, with only 3.43 million couples tying the knot in the first half of 2024, a decrease of nearly half a million from the previous year.
Experts anticipate this trend to continue, potentially reaching the lowest level since the late 1970s.
Pets over kids in China
As the number of babies dwindles, a burgeoning “pet economy” is flourishing, with young adults lavishing attention and resources on their furry companions. This shift has led to a boom in the pet industry, with sales of food, toys, healthcare, and services skyrocketing.
According to market consultancy iiMedia Research, China’s pet economy is set to explode, reaching an estimated 811.4 billion yuan (US$113.6 billion) by 2025.
The pet food market alone is expected to grow into a US$12 billion industry by 2030, with cat food sales outpacing the average growth rate.
Bond between pets and humans strengthens
Despite this growth, China’s pet guardianship rates are still relatively low compared to countries like Japan and the United States.
However, the trend is clear: as birth rates continue to fall, with only 9.02 million births reported in 2023, the lowest since 1949, the nation’s love for pets is rising.
Demographer He Yafu predicts that the total number of marriages this year will be fewer than in 2022, continuing a downward trend that began after peaking in 2013.
Last year, it also marked the second consecutive annual decline in China’s total population, falling to 1.4097 billion, a decrease of 2.08 million.
Goldman Sachs forecasts that new births in China will contract at an average rate of 4.2 per cent until 2030, driven by a decrease in the number of women aged 20 to 35 and a diminishing desire among the younger generation to have children.
As China’s demographic landscape evolves, the bond between humans and their pets strengthens, signalling a new chapter in the country’s social and economic narrative.